March Madness 2012 Breakdown of Each Region

The long awaited Selection Sunday is now behind us, as everyone has their brackets ready to scrutinize over for hours and finally fill out with the care and caution of handling a new-born baby.  We’ve spent all season long watching the games, and changing our opinions on who the real contenders are and who is prone to an upset.  After finally settling our minds on a completed draft of our bracket, we sit around waiting for days until the tournament starts to witness the fruition of our season long analysis, only to see a 13 or 14 seed bust our whole bracket with an unexpected upset.  But that’s just what makes the tournament so great, no matter how much you think you know, you never can predict everything.  We all enter the tournament thinking, “this is my year, I’m going to fill out the perfect bracket” but it just doesn’t happen.  We’ll just have to wait and see which teams are going to make their runs in this year’s edition of March Madness.  To give you a little help and provide some insight, here is my breakdown of each region heading into the tournament.

South:

As most people are aware Kentucky is the clear-cut favorite out of the South region to make the final four. The only way they will lose before New Orleans is if their youth and inexperience trips themselves up.  Kentucky has too much size and talent on their roster to be beaten when their playing at their best.  Connecticut could pose as an interesting potential second round matchup with Kentucky if they play up to their potential.  They are one of the few teams in this region that has the talent to face off against Kentucky if they play well.  The problem for Connecticut though has been, they have not played well since December.  Look for a potential interesting matchup on the bottom half of this region between Baylor and Duke.  These two teams play very different styles; Duke running a guard oriented offense, and Baylor playing through their bigs, mainly Perry Jones III.  Two teams in this region that may surprise a few people are Wichita State and UNLV.  Wichita State has gotten great guard play from Joe Ragland all season long, and they have proven that they can play with anybody.  UNLV handed North Carolina their first loss of the season back in November, and have played at a high level all season.  In the end I see Kentucky getting back to the Final Four on the tremendous efforts from Anthony Davis and crew.

East:

Of any of the #1 seeds in this tournament I see Syracuse out of the East being the most vulnerable.  Despite their two loss record throughout the season, they remain vulnerable in this tournament because of their weak rebounding numbers.  If their three pointers aren’t going down, they could be knocked off early by the likes of Kansas State or Vanderbilt, or possibly in the Elite Eight vs. Florida State or Ohio State.  Florida State has been a hot team as of late winning the ACC Tournament by beating Duke and North Carolina in consecutive days.  They are a very dangerous team in the East, and the looming matchup vs. Ohio State looks to be one of the best in the tournament.  I expect the winner of Ohio State vs. Florida State to make the Final Four.  Ohio State is a very talented team behind Jared Sullinger’s post play and Aaron Craft’s defense.  Vanderbilt has become a trendy upset pick to make the final four after beating Kentucky in the SEC Championship game, but a dangerous pick as well as they may go down in the first round to a solid Harvard group.  My pick for the Final Four in the East is Florida State.

Midwest:

This region looks to be setting up for a power clash in the Elite Eight between North Carolina and Kansas.  Kansas has almost overachieved this season because of the play of Thomas Robinson, and if he continues to play strong, they will be a tough out in the tournament against anyone.  North Carolina started the season as the preseason #1 and have not done much to hurt that.  Their only concern is whether or not John Henson will be healthy throughout the tournament.  They will need is shot blocking abilities against teams in this region with strong post play such as Creighton with Doug McDermott and Kansas with both Robinson and Jeff Withey.  A potential upset to pick in this region is Belmont over Georgetown.  Belmont posted a solid 27-7 record this season, with a close 1 point loss against Duke on their resume as well.  Georgetown also seems like a vulnerable team after an early exit in the Big East Tournament.  Saint Mary’s may surprise a few people as well by beating Kansas in the second round.  They have good senior leadership from point guard Matthew Dellavedova and forward Rob Jones.  In the end, I see North Carolina making the Final Four by getting past Kansas in a close one.

West:

Of all of the regions in this year’s tournament, the West looks to be the toughest one.  They potentially have two teams who could have earned #1 seeds in Michigan State and Missouri.  Also 6th seeded Murray State only lost one game all season, and are the sleeper pick of many to make a run.  Not only that, Memphis and Florida are both considered to be underseeded teams who look dangerous to the top line.  Marquette possesses Big East Player of the Year Jae Crowder and he wasn’t even the leading scorer on his team averaging a point less per game than teammate Darius Johnson-Odom.  Marquette may have to face an Iona squad who is home to the nation’s leading assist man Scott Machado and Arizona transfer Momo Jones.  If that wasn’t enough, the #4 seed in this region is Louisville who just capped off an impressive four game run to win the Big East Tourament behind guard Peyton Siva.  From top to bottom this is by far the deepest region in the tournament, and holds a potential for any number of teams to make a final four run.  My upset pick from this region is that Long Beach State knocks off New Mexico behind the play of Casper Ware, and also Iona will give Marquette a closer game then they would like from a #14 seed.   I think that Michigan State holds true to get to New Orleans through their post play, but they will have no easy task of it.

So my Final Four is set with Kentucky playing Michigan State and Florida State pitted in a rematch with North Carolina.  Kentucky just has too much talent for Michigan State to handle and they make the title game vs. North Carolina who finally gets past Florida State in a high scoring affair.  Overall I see John Calipari’s group of young players breaking through to win the National Championship over North Carolina.  With that being said, good luck on your brackets and let the Madness begin.